New research shows that violence in Nigeria is once again on the rise. In the fourth quarter of 2025, 153% more civilians were abducted than in the same period a year earlier. The number of civilians killed by extremists and militants during the same period rose by 51%. Open Doors presents these figures in its research brief, ‘Nigeria at the crossroads’. Over the coming months, Open Doors will publish several research briefs on violence in sub-Saharan Africa. The first brief explores the question: can the millions of Nigerians who have fled the violence ever return home? Is there a future for Nigeria’s displaced Church?
A national state of emergency
The number of killings and abductions carried out by extremist groups in Nigeria reached its highest level in 2021. Violence then declined for a period, but at the end of 2025, the number of killings and abductions rose dramatically again. Between October and December 2025, 3,415 people were abducted, compared with 1,352 during the same months in 2024. The number of civilians killed in Nigeria rose from 1,148 in the final quarter of 2024 to 1,735 in the fourth quarter of 2025..
In November 2025, Nigerian President Bola Tinubu declared a national state of emergency. Mass abductions of students and teachers in northern Nigeria had led to the closure of schools in eleven states. A month earlier, the United States had once again designated Nigeria as a ‘Country of Particular Concern’ (CPC) for its failure to protect religious freedom.
“The situation in Nigeria has been devastating for years, and there are no quick solutions. But that doesn’t mean there is nothing we can do.”
Religious background
The situation in Nigeria is complex, but the religious identity of both perpetrators and victims does play a significant role. Measuring and mapping violence, and understanding how different religious groups are affected by it, requires a sound research methodology and robust evidence. Open Doors’ research brief ‘Nigeria at the crossroads’ presents data from a range of sources. The figures on violence are based primarily on reports from the Observatory for Religious Freedom in Africa (ORFA).
The brief shows that most of the victims are in northern and central Nigeria. It looks at the role played by well-known terrorist organisations such as Boko Haram and ISWAP (Islamic State’s West Africa branch). The brief also highlights the growing number of killings and abductions carried out by militant members of the Fulani ethnic group, who target both the Christian minority – which makes up just 26% of the population in northern Nigeria – and Muslims from the Hausa ethnic group.
The data show that the number of Christians killed in Nigeria remained high between October 2023 and December 2025, while the number of Muslims killed also increased. When it comes to abductions, the number of Christian victims was higher than the number of Muslim victims up to and including the 2023 research year (1 October 2022 to 30 September 2023). Since the 2024 research year, however, more Muslims have been abducted than Christians. Nevertheless, Christians face a much higher risk of abduction: although they make up only a small proportion of the population in the areas where abductions occur, they are disproportionately represented among those abducted.
“The future of millions of people – particularly in northern and central Nigeria – is at stake.”
Can people return home?
The violence is disrupting entire communities. Almost four million Nigerians have been forced to flee the violence that has plagued the country for decades. It is not only the villages and towns they flee that are affected; the communities that receive those displaced by the violence are also coming under severe pressure. The brief ‘Nigeria at the crossroads’ warns that “if current trends of violence and impunity continue, displacement will increase and the prospects of return will diminish further”.
The research brief paints a shocking picture, but it also points to a way forward. “The situation in Nigeria has been devastating for years, and there are no quick solutions. But that doesn’t mean there is nothing we can do. Nigeria is at a crossroads. The future of many affected communities, including the Church in Nigeria, which is under severe pressure, depends on decisive action by the Nigerian government, supported by the international community,” says Wimco Ester, Open Doors advocate.
“To build peace in Nigeria, the government must strengthen the security measures it has recently introduced, ensure that perpetrators are brought to justice, and enable displaced people to return safely and rebuild their lives. It would also make a significant difference if gangs and militant groups were disarmed, and if illegal weapons were confiscated and destroyed.”
Ester: “Continued international attention and pressure on Nigeria are also crucial to ensuring that justice is served, that every citizen is protected and that impunity comes to an end. The future of millions of people – particularly in northern and central Nigeria – is at stake.”
Nigeria ranks 7th on the World Watch List.
Read ‘Nigeria at the crossroads’ here:
